2024 Schedule Ranking
The ability to build a strong Pool C ("at-large") resume (should you need a Pool C) begins with scheduling. Your schedule immediately gives you a strong ability or a weak ability to build the kind of resume that the NCAA Criteria and NCAA Committee(s) value.
- PROJ SOS -> Takes last season's Winning Percentage, and adjusts/"predicts" this year's winning percentage by using the average % of production that team's return (~%63.20%) and a team's deviation from that number.
Calculate OWP, OOWP, and NCAA SOS from there.
This does not include conference tournaments.
- PROJ RRO GMS -> Using my Regional Rankings prediction and a team's plus/minus from spot #7, assigns them a percentage of being regionally ranked. The sum of these percentages in each region is greater than 7, so these numbers are slightly inflated for every team.
- Scott Preseason Rank
- Resume 'STAT' Rank -> Take a team's StDev for each of the previous three stats ("Scott Preseason Rank" is a proxy for Winning Percentage), weight them similar to how the committee does, and then rank the teams.
This is slightly different from Preseason Rank because it's not trying to project/predict the BEST teams; it's trying to project/predict the teams that both can and will construct the strongest NCAA resumes.
TBA/TBD Games
Some teams have TBA games as part of tournaments. Those games are not counted since we don't know the opponents yet.
# of Games
I added a "# D3 GMS" column to clearly show the number of regular season, D3 games that I currently have tabulated for each team. This # does not include TBA/TBD opponent games. This will help people know what the numbers are based off of.
In some rare cases, if teams are part of a 4-team tournament where winners face winners, and I see a clear imbalance between the teams, I will pencil in expected winners as opponents.
Pool A/C Column
The logic is very crude. If either your projected SOS is below 0.525 (I think 0.550 is the danger line, but I set this lower because (a) conference tournament games likely rise your SOS slightly, (b) allowing for error bars in my projections), OR your # of RRO games is below 5 (same logic as SOS, generally teams need ~7-8 RRO results for Pool C consideration), AND your Preseason Rank is worse than #100, then I mark you as needing the Pool A.
**** LAST UPDATED -> 2023/11/08 2:47pm CT
- PROJ SOS -> Takes last season's Winning Percentage, and adjusts/"predicts" this year's winning percentage by using the average % of production that team's return (~%63.20%) and a team's deviation from that number.
Calculate OWP, OOWP, and NCAA SOS from there.
This does not include conference tournaments.
- PROJ RRO GMS -> Using my Regional Rankings prediction and a team's plus/minus from spot #7, assigns them a percentage of being regionally ranked. The sum of these percentages in each region is greater than 7, so these numbers are slightly inflated for every team.
- Scott Preseason Rank
- Resume 'STAT' Rank -> Take a team's StDev for each of the previous three stats ("Scott Preseason Rank" is a proxy for Winning Percentage), weight them similar to how the committee does, and then rank the teams.
This is slightly different from Preseason Rank because it's not trying to project/predict the BEST teams; it's trying to project/predict the teams that both can and will construct the strongest NCAA resumes.
TBA/TBD Games
Some teams have TBA games as part of tournaments. Those games are not counted since we don't know the opponents yet.
# of Games
I added a "# D3 GMS" column to clearly show the number of regular season, D3 games that I currently have tabulated for each team. This # does not include TBA/TBD opponent games. This will help people know what the numbers are based off of.
In some rare cases, if teams are part of a 4-team tournament where winners face winners, and I see a clear imbalance between the teams, I will pencil in expected winners as opponents.
Pool A/C Column
The logic is very crude. If either your projected SOS is below 0.525 (I think 0.550 is the danger line, but I set this lower because (a) conference tournament games likely rise your SOS slightly, (b) allowing for error bars in my projections), OR your # of RRO games is below 5 (same logic as SOS, generally teams need ~7-8 RRO results for Pool C consideration), AND your Preseason Rank is worse than #100, then I mark you as needing the Pool A.
**** LAST UPDATED -> 2023/11/08 2:47pm CT